Wednesday, June 2, 2010
NOAA Forecasts 'Active to Extremely Active' Atlantic Hurricane Season
CAMP SPRINGS, Maryland, June 1, 2010 (ENS) - An "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins today, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms with top winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
The named storms will include eight to 14 hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher.
Three to seven of those hurricanes could be major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of at least 111 mph, NOAA predicts.
This outlook exceeds the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
As with every hurricane season, said Lubchenco, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
The Climate Prediction Center says that expected factors supporting this outlook are:
Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Ni�o in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Hurricane Rita, September 2005. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top 10 for the most named storms. The year 2005 is in first place with 28 named storms.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop," said Bell.
Florida State University scientists who have developed a unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy also are forecasting an unusually active season this year.
Scientist Tim LaRow and his colleagues at FSU's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies say there will be an average of 17 named storms with 10 of those storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.
"It looks like it will be a very busy season, and it only takes one hurricane making landfall to have devastating effects," LaRow said. "The predicted high number of tropical systems means there is an increased chance that the eastern United States or Gulf Coast will see a landfall this year."
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready."
"These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans," Fugate said. "You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continually monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico "is not likely to have a significant impact" on the formation of hurricanes, NOAA scientists say in a May 27 statement.
Where there is likely to be damage, however, is when storm surges carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, and also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
LaRow said, "The oil spill will probably have little influence on the hurricane season, but we don't know for sure since this spill is unprecedented. It's uncertain how exactly the atmospheric and oceanic conditions might change if the spill continues to grow."
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry (Photo courtesy USCG)
One person who has deep knowledge of both the behavior of hurricanes and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will be at the helm of the U.S. Coast Guard response to the coming Atlantic hurricane season.
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, who has been serving as federal on-scene coordinator for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response since the oil rig exploded on April 20, today will rotate back to her role as Commander of the Eighth Coast Guard District, to ensure continuity of leadership during the 2010 hurricane season.
Rear Admiral James Watson, who has been her deputy since April 23, will assume the role of federal on-scene coordinator.
"The plan for Rear Admiral Landry to return to her command of the Eighth District at the beginning of the hurricane season has been the strategy since the beginning of this response," said Admiral Robert Papp, commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. "It is critically important that she make sure the Eighth Coast Guard District forces are ready for a potentially busy hurricane season in the midst of this environmental disaster."
"After my time as federal on-scene coordinator, I have a deep understanding of the impact this tragedy will have on the states in the Eighth District," said Landry. "I commit to working closely with Rear Adm. Watson on our mutual goal of bringing the affected areas and communities through this disaster and seeing that they are made whole."
A hurricane's winds rotate counter-clockwise, so, NOAA explains, a hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast, while a hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
However, NOAA cautions, "the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement."
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins today, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms with top winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
The named storms will include eight to 14 hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher.
Three to seven of those hurricanes could be major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of at least 111 mph, NOAA predicts.
This outlook exceeds the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
As with every hurricane season, said Lubchenco, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
The Climate Prediction Center says that expected factors supporting this outlook are:
Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Ni�o in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Hurricane Rita, September 2005. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top 10 for the most named storms. The year 2005 is in first place with 28 named storms.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop," said Bell.
Florida State University scientists who have developed a unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy also are forecasting an unusually active season this year.
Scientist Tim LaRow and his colleagues at FSU's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies say there will be an average of 17 named storms with 10 of those storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.
"It looks like it will be a very busy season, and it only takes one hurricane making landfall to have devastating effects," LaRow said. "The predicted high number of tropical systems means there is an increased chance that the eastern United States or Gulf Coast will see a landfall this year."
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready."
"These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans," Fugate said. "You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continually monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico "is not likely to have a significant impact" on the formation of hurricanes, NOAA scientists say in a May 27 statement.
Where there is likely to be damage, however, is when storm surges carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, and also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
LaRow said, "The oil spill will probably have little influence on the hurricane season, but we don't know for sure since this spill is unprecedented. It's uncertain how exactly the atmospheric and oceanic conditions might change if the spill continues to grow."
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry (Photo courtesy USCG)
One person who has deep knowledge of both the behavior of hurricanes and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will be at the helm of the U.S. Coast Guard response to the coming Atlantic hurricane season.
U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, who has been serving as federal on-scene coordinator for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response since the oil rig exploded on April 20, today will rotate back to her role as Commander of the Eighth Coast Guard District, to ensure continuity of leadership during the 2010 hurricane season.
Rear Admiral James Watson, who has been her deputy since April 23, will assume the role of federal on-scene coordinator.
"The plan for Rear Admiral Landry to return to her command of the Eighth District at the beginning of the hurricane season has been the strategy since the beginning of this response," said Admiral Robert Papp, commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. "It is critically important that she make sure the Eighth Coast Guard District forces are ready for a potentially busy hurricane season in the midst of this environmental disaster."
"After my time as federal on-scene coordinator, I have a deep understanding of the impact this tragedy will have on the states in the Eighth District," said Landry. "I commit to working closely with Rear Adm. Watson on our mutual goal of bringing the affected areas and communities through this disaster and seeing that they are made whole."
A hurricane's winds rotate counter-clockwise, so, NOAA explains, a hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast, while a hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
However, NOAA cautions, "the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement."
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Jamaica violence: Former prime minister fears indefinite martial law
Former Prime Minister Edward Seaga fears Jamaica could fall under indefinite martial law in the aftermath of a week of violence during which, he says, soldiers and police indiscriminately killed dozens of innocent people.
In a telephone interview, Seaga, who was prime minister from 1980 to '89, said Prime Minister Bruce Golding has lost control of the nation's security forces seeking to capture alleged gang leader and drug trafficker Christopher "Dudus" Coke. The suspect, who has been indicted in New York federal court on drug and arms-trafficking charges, is still at large.
Much of the violence has occurred in and around Coke's power base in Kingston's Tivoli Gardens neighborhood. Since May 23, the Jamaican police force and army have conducted several sweeps in which at least 73 people have been killed and 700 arrested. Two police officers and one solider have also been killed in shootouts.
Repeating his call for Golding to resign, Seaga, who represented Tivoli Gardens in Parliament before Golding took over the district, said the prime minister is "vacillating, bumbling and heads a corrupt government."
"I don't want to be guilty of spreading the bad news, but it's time that what is happening is opened up before the world," said Seaga, 80, who has been active in Jamaican politics since independence in 1962. He and Golding are longtime political rivals within the Jamaica Labor Party.
Seaga said at least 100 people had died in the sweeps, and none of them were gangsters.
"The criminals are not the people who have been killed, just innocent people leaving their houses. The armed forces shot every man they could find. This has made me very distraught," said Seaga, adding that Tivoli Gardens is a "crime-free area."
The government said Saturday that all but six of hundreds being held at the National Arena have been released.
Asked to respond to Seaga's charges, officials at a government information center referred to a news conference conducted Friday by Jamaica Police Commissioner Owen Ellington. The commissioner had said that the operations were mounted in response to gangs' "coordinated criminal attacks against security forces" after the government served notice that it was going to arrest Coke.
In a telephone interview, Seaga, who was prime minister from 1980 to '89, said Prime Minister Bruce Golding has lost control of the nation's security forces seeking to capture alleged gang leader and drug trafficker Christopher "Dudus" Coke. The suspect, who has been indicted in New York federal court on drug and arms-trafficking charges, is still at large.
Much of the violence has occurred in and around Coke's power base in Kingston's Tivoli Gardens neighborhood. Since May 23, the Jamaican police force and army have conducted several sweeps in which at least 73 people have been killed and 700 arrested. Two police officers and one solider have also been killed in shootouts.
Repeating his call for Golding to resign, Seaga, who represented Tivoli Gardens in Parliament before Golding took over the district, said the prime minister is "vacillating, bumbling and heads a corrupt government."
"I don't want to be guilty of spreading the bad news, but it's time that what is happening is opened up before the world," said Seaga, 80, who has been active in Jamaican politics since independence in 1962. He and Golding are longtime political rivals within the Jamaica Labor Party.
Seaga said at least 100 people had died in the sweeps, and none of them were gangsters.
"The criminals are not the people who have been killed, just innocent people leaving their houses. The armed forces shot every man they could find. This has made me very distraught," said Seaga, adding that Tivoli Gardens is a "crime-free area."
The government said Saturday that all but six of hundreds being held at the National Arena have been released.
Asked to respond to Seaga's charges, officials at a government information center referred to a news conference conducted Friday by Jamaica Police Commissioner Owen Ellington. The commissioner had said that the operations were mounted in response to gangs' "coordinated criminal attacks against security forces" after the government served notice that it was going to arrest Coke.
Bill Hunt, Running for OC Sheriff While Tied to Militia Kooks, Alarms Civil Rights Group
Orange County ain't big enough for sheriff candidate Bill Hunt and an internationally known nonprofit civil rights group.
Hunt, who is running against appointed Sheriff Sandra Hutchens and Anaheim deputy police chief Craig Hunter in next Tuesday's election, has ties to a loosely based national movement known as Oath Keepers.
The so-called "patriot" group is enlisting law enforcement and military personnel to vow to refuse 10 orders they say are unconstitutional, from confiscating guns to warrantless searches.
The movement is gaining traction in at least a dozen sheriffs races across the country, including Orange County's, the Associated Press reports.
That alarms the Montgomery, Alabama-based Southern Poverty Law Center.
The nonprofit civil rights organization--it has fought hate, bigotry, and injustice against the most vulnerable members of society since being founded in 1971 by civil rights lawyers Morris Dees and Joseph Levin Jr.--considers the Oath Keepers a dangerous anti-government group.
The Oath Keepers, claims the Southern Poverty Law Center, is a "particularly worrisome example of the Patriot revival" getting too cozy with the hate groups the SPLC tracks. That the militia movement is making inroads into law enforcement is of particular concern to the SPLC.
Its "Rage on the Right" report from 2009 classified the Oath Keepers as "a Patriot outfit formed last year that suggests, in thinly veiled language, that the government has secret plans to declare martial law and intern patriotic Americans in concentration camps."
It continues, "Politicians pandering to the anti-government right in 37 states have introduced 'Tenth Amendment Resolutions,' based on the constitutional provision keeping all powers not explicitly given to the federal government with the states."
"They think we're on the verge of the end of the world with [President Barack] Obama," a solemn-faced Hunter said of the Oath Keepers at a Republican women's gathering April 10 in Los Alamitos.
As reported in our R. Scott Moxley's Moxley Confidential column on the presentation, Hunter went on to say, "These people, military and police, say that if they believe the feds try to violate our rights, they will stand down, refuse to follow orders.
"Not following orders--that's called a coup, a junta."
The Orange County Register Editorial Board on Sunday endorsed Hunter for sheriff, and had about as many praise-worthy words for Hutchens, saying she came in a close second to winning the Register nod.
However, despite sharing libertarian principles with many tea party types that Hunt has also aligned himself with, the Editorial Board tellingly said little about him--other than noting he was part of disgraced former Sheriff Mike Carona's regime.
In other recent setbacks, police associations in La Habra and Santa Ana recently yanked endorsements of Hunt because of his private investigator work for criminal defense attorneys.
That seems to indicate Hunt is losing the political traction the Oath Keepers are supposedly experiencing to the chagrin of the SPLC.
But if "Hunt for Sheriff" campaign signs outnumbering those for Hunter and Hutchens by my unofficial count of 746 to 0/0 over Memorial Day weekend in Seal Beach, Sunset Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley and Costa Mesa means anything, Hunt isn't hydroplaning.
(My daughter, visiting from Europe, thought the "Hunt 4 Sheriff" signs announced a new game.)
Hunt can also point to this: like many in the tea party crowd, several Oath Keepers disagree on what exactly their movement represents, beyond the vague principles outlined in the 10 orders.
The candidate can therefore cherry pick the rhetoric that sounds like music to teabagged ears, while distancing himself from the whole taking-up-arms-against-meddling-feds thing.
"Leadership is meeting with the other agencies in government," Hunt says in the AP report, "and letting them know it if they are outside their jurisdiction."
See, he's just going to strongly state his objections whenever the feds inevitably step over the line. It's not like he's going to grab a shotgun and strike a menacing pose against them.
You know, like he does in the photo that began this post.
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