The 55% who say their taxes are fair is lowest since 2001
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- This Tax Day, 55% of Americans
regard the income taxes they have to pay as fair, the lowest percentage
Gallup has measured since 2001.
The results are based on Gallup's Economy and Personal Finance poll,
conducted April 4-7, and annually since 2001. The recent high in
Americans' perceptions that their taxes were fair, 64%, came in 2003,
after President Bush signed tax cuts into law and weeks after the Iraq
war began.
Gallup's history of asking this question stretches back to the 1940s.
From 1943 through 1945, during World War II, few Americans complained
about their taxes, with an average of 87% of Americans saying their
taxes were fair. That dropped down to an average of 61% in 1946, the
first year after the war.
Gallup resurrected the question in the late 1990s, when an average
48% said their income taxes were fair, including the historical low of
45% in 1999. Americans' views of their taxes as fair improved from 51%
in 2001 to 58% in 2002, shortly after the Bush administration put into
place a round of tax cuts.
Perceptions of income tax fairness, perhaps surprisingly, vary little
by household income level. Fifty-seven percent of those whose annual
household income level is below $75,000 say their taxes are fair, as do
54% of those whose income is $75,000 or above.
In fact, there are no notable differences by most major demographic
groups. The biggest differences are based on political affiliation, with
Democrats and political liberals much more likely than Republicans and
conservatives to believe their taxes are fair.
The gaps by party and ideology have expanded modestly since President
Barack Obama took office. In 2008, the last full year of the Bush
administration, 67% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans said their taxes
were fair, a gap of 12 percentage points, compared with 17 points
today. In 2003, the recent high point in Americans' belief that they pay
fair taxes, there were essentially no party differences (66% among
Democrats, 62% among Republicans).
Thus, the decline in Americans' belief that their taxes are fair is
due mostly to Republicans' changing views. Taxes have been at the
forefront of much of the debate over economic and budgetary policy in
recent years, although, in reality, federal income taxes have not
changed for most Americans since Obama took office, because the
president has preserved the Bush-era income tax cuts for all but the
highest-income Americans.
Half Say Their Taxes Are Too High
The poll also finds half of Americans saying their income taxes are
"too high," with most of the rest (45%) saying they are about right. Two
percent believe their taxes are "too low."
Last year, 46% of Americans said their taxes were too high, tying the
record low in the Gallup trend dating back to 1956. A record-high 69%
of Americans said their taxes were too high in 1969.
Americans are also more likely this year (64%) than last year (53%)
to believe that their taxes will be "changed so that they are higher"
during the next 12 months. Thirty-one percent expect no change in their
taxes and 3% expect to pay lower taxes.
Gallup has asked this question periodically over the years -- in 1977
and 1978, in 1994, and three times since 2010. In almost every
instance, at least a plurality of Americans have expected their taxes to
be raised.
Implications
Although a majority of Americans still believe the income taxes they
pay are fair, the 55% who say so is the lowest Gallup has measured since
2001, before the first of two rounds of federal income tax cuts went
into effect. Since the second round of tax cuts in 2003, income taxes
have held at about the same level, though Congress and the president did
agree to raise income taxes on the wealthiest Americans as part of the
agreement to avoid the "fiscal cliff" tax increases that were scheduled
to go into effect this year.
It is possible that this tax increase affected how Americans perceive
their own federal income taxes, even though very few Americans on a
percentage basis would likely have seen an increase. However, nearly all
working Americans are now getting less take-home pay since the Social
Security payroll tax holiday expired at the beginning of this year.
The percentage of Americans who say their federal income taxes are
too high is on the low end of what Gallup has measured historically, but
more Americans than in 2012 expect their taxes to go up this year. It
is unclear whether taxes will change this year, given that President
Obama and the Republicans in Congress disagree on the need for, and the
desirability of, tax increases.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews
conducted April 4-7, 2013, with a random sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18
and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage
points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and
cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents
who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults
includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline
respondents, with additional minimum quotas by region. Landline
telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers.
Cellphone numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Landline
respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of
which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability,
nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two
sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national
demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education,
region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only/landline
only/both, cellphone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number).
Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2012 Current
Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population.
Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2011 National Health
Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010
census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed
design effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of public opinion polls.
View methodology, full question results, and trend data.
