Thursday, October 14, 2010

dollar crashing look out every one

T
he U.S. dollar has slowly tanked this year. The scenario that turns the dollar’s bear market into a crash is beginning to look inevitable.

A dollar crash might happen because foreign investors decide that the U.S. has fallen into a so-called tax trap, which occurs when a nation is unable to increase revenue by lifting tax rates. This circumstance, paired with mounting deficits, can lead to wholesale flight from a nation’s assets. The Chinese will only lend money if they think we will pay it back

The graduated U.S. income tax probably has reached the point where higher rates raise little new revenue, at least given the political landscape. President Barack Obama has pledged to only increase taxes on those with incomes higher than $250,000. But lifting only that top marginal rate can have perverse revenue effects.

When tax rates go up, wealthy individuals have many options to reduce their tax bill. With a tax rate of 35%, for every dollar of income reduction, the government loses 35 cents. After the adjustment occurs, the government collects revenue via the higher rate applied to what is left. If you lift the marginal rate from 35% to 45% — assuming taxpayers adjust their incomes lower — then you lose 35 cents for every dollar of income reduction, while getting back 10 cents on every dollar that is left in the top bracket. The revenue effect depends on how much income adjusts, and how much income is left in the top bracket after that adjustment.

Let’s take the tax changes the Democrats have planned for next year. They want to let the top marginal rate go from 35% to 39.6%, and to reduce the value of itemized deductions in a way that adds a little more than 1% to the marginal tax rate, making the total 40.8%.

The top income tax rate kicks in for a married couple at $372,951. Everyone with an income above that will face the higher rate, and some adjust their taxable income down accordingly. A study at the University of California-Berkeley suggests that these taxpayers would reduce their income by about 5.2%.

If so, the tax increases will raise very little revenue. In fact, for every individual with income below about $613,000, the government will actually lose money because of the tax hike. The 35 cents lost for every dollar of income reduction isn’t offset by the roughly 6 cents gained on the income that remains.

The numbers are even worse if we analyze the 5.4% millionaire surtax that just passed the House as part of the health-care bill. Within the top tax bracket, the lower the income, the more people there are with that income. You have to collect a lot more money from the richest taxpayers in the bracket to offset the revenue losses from those at the bottom of the bracket as they make moves to avoid the tax by lowering their income. The net revenue raised by these tax changes is likely to be tiny.

The government deficit already looks like it will approach $1-trillion a year over the next decade. But in fact, the higher tax rates, especially those that are, as in the health-care bill, paired with higher spending, are going to make it worse.

When investors see that higher taxes deliver little new revenue while spending soars, they will head for the exits.

The dollar will be dead, and the tax trap will have killed it.

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NEW YORK (Forex News Now) – In early forex trading news today, the U.S. dollar index took a beating, reaching a new low for 2010 at 76.259, while Singapore and Australia both showed strength in their respective currencies.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the dollar versus a basket of major currencies, fell by 1 percent at its deepest point to 76.259.  This is the lowest mark reached since last December.  The index appears to be on a downward trendline, heading to a support level of 75.95.  This would put the index close to the 74.71 mark reached last November.
The move comes as investors continue to flock to other currencies backed by higher yields and more stable economies.  The Aussie in particular has surged, soaring to a 28-year high at $0.9994 today, up 11% in 2010 and 24% from a low point this past May.
Australia
The resurgence of the Aussie is an interesting case study in the dynamics of global currency today.  The Australian economy was the first to raise interest rates in the developed world following the global recession, and has shown strength while other economies – namely that of the United States – have continued to demonstrate systemic weakness.
Of course, the Aussie has encountered resistance at parity, with options barriers at $1.0000 blamed for the slight retreat of the rally.  With that being said, as long as the dollar continues to depreciate, the Aussie will continue to rise until the psychological barrier of parity is broken.
With the pending stimulus actions in play for November, that may happen sooner rather than later.
Singapore
The Singaporean dollar also advanced due to forex trading news after the Monetary Authority of Singapore declared it would maintain “modest and gradual appreciation” in its currency. Currently, the dollar trades at S$1.2888, and is down -0.46% on the day.
Looking at Singapore is another example of an economy at the other end of the spectrum from the economic situation in the United States. Singapore, a slight net exporter of goods, has experienced an estimated 10.3% of year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter, and remains on track for a positive growth forecast for 2010.
U.S. investors will still be driven primarily by forex trading news coming from major partners, such as Japan.  Today’s fall of the dollar index places even more pressure on the Bank of Japan to act, since USD/JPY is currently down 0.4% at 81.46.
While this mark is up from the day’s low of 80.88, it still will prove to be an influence on the dollar throughout the week

U.S. Troops To Deal With Rioting Americans

Globalists Collapsing Society To Bring In Martial Law
U.S. Troops To Deal With Rioting Americans 141010top3
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Thursday, October 14, 2010
U.S. troops now being trained to boss communities and run local governments are being readied to oversee a post-collapse America in which riots and civil unrest similar to that now exploding in Europe over austerity measures and pension cuts ravage the United States and are met with the iron fist of a militarized police state.
Reaction to our earlier story about the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division being prepared for a situation where “in essence they will become the local government” by working with local officials has been strong, with some refusing to believe that the program is geared towards anything other than operations overseas.
However, as we outlined in our article, similar deployments by Northcom are admittedly focused around “homeland patrols” and training troops to deal with “civil unrest” and “crowd control”.
We have documented numerous incidents over the past several years where active duty troops or national guard have been used in domestic law enforcement operations.
The military are now being called upon to undertake roles normally designated to police as Americans are incrementally acclimated to accept the presence of troops on the streets as an everyday occurrence, in preparation for them to be used should the United States enter a post-collapse period of turmoil and unrest.
We covered a case in Kingman Arizona last September, where National Guardsmen were filmed “providing security” and directing traffi


U.S. mortgage rates reached new record lows

Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates reached new record lows in the latest week, according to a Freddie Mac survey released on Thursday, as data showing economic weakness fueled demand for safe-haven government debt.

Interest rates on U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most widely used loan, averaged 4.19 percent for the week ended Oct. 14, down from the previous week's 4.27 percent and the lowest on record, according to the survey that began in 1971.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been under 5 percent for 23 weeks in row. Rates were also below their year-ago level of 4.92 percent, said Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB), the second-largest U.S. mortgage finance company.

While rock-bottom rates offer a glimmer of hope for a housing market struggling to find footing in the aftermath of the expiration of popular home buyer tax credits earlier this year, their impact on demand for home purchase loans has been tepid. A weak jobs market and flailing economy continue to weigh on consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to average 3.62 percent from 3.72 percent last week, the lowest since Freddie Mac began surveying this loan type in 1991.

"September's employment report held no big surprises to financial markets, allowing long-term bond yields and fixed mortgage rates to continue to ease," Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.

"As a result, both the 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates hit all-time record lows for the third consecutive week," he said.

Mortgage rates are linked to yields on Treasuries and yields on mortgage-backed securities.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday mortgage applications for home refinancing loans rose for the first time in six weeks, with demand jumping to its highest level since late August. For details double-click on [ID:nNLLCLE6JW].

An increase in refinancing may provide a jolt to the economy as it could portend an increase in consumer spending. By lowering monthly mortgage payments it may also help some homeowners avoid default and foreclosure if their credit is good enough.

Michael Gapen, senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said low mortgage rates have significantly improved affordability, but believes a housing market recovery will be elusive without a stronger labor market.

"The rise in refinancing activity is good for household balance sheets and supportive of housing activity in general," he said.

"At this point a housing market recovery will largely depend on the ability of the economy to create jobs and support higher incomes for people," he said.

Freddie Mac said rates on 5/1 ARMs, set at a fixed rate for five years and adjustable in each following year, was 3.47 percent, unchanged from last week, tying the all-time lowest level since Freddie Mac began tracking this loan type in 2005.

One-year adjustable-rate mortgages were 3.43 percent, up from 3.40 percent last week. A year ago, 15-year mortgages averaged 4.37 percent, the one-year ARM was 4.60 percent and the 5/1 ARM 4.38 percent. [ID:nWALELE6OQ]

Yahoo shares surge on prospect of buyout

Yahoo's shares surged above $17 in premarket trade, but stood at $16.72, up $1.47 or 9.6 percent, shortly after regular trade began on the Nasdaq. The $16.72 level represented the stock's highest mark since early May.

Yahoo's jump comes after a source said on Wednesday that several private equity firms have approached media companies including News Corp and AOL about a possible acquisition of Yahoo [ID:nN13281610].

In a note to clients, Justin Post, an analyst with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said private equity interest in Yahoo "makes sense" considering its current valuation, but added that finding a media partner for a deal "could be difficult given that most big media players have not had good experiences with Internet assets."

He added that the stock would be fairly valued around $18 a share and that investors should not chase the company much above that in light of "significant hurdles" to clinching a deal.

So far, Yahoo, the world's No. 2 search engine and a company that is struggling to revive revenue growth, has not yet been approached by the private equity firms, according to the source who revealed the talks.

Another source said Silver Lake Partners SILAK.UL was among the firms in very preliminary discussions about acquisition scenarios.

While Yahoo's stock jumped on Thursday, News Corp shares were steady at $14.18 and AOL shares were up 2.6 percent at $25.77.

(Reporting by Paul Thomasch, editing by Matthew Lewis)

Jobless claims rise, topping 460,000

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose last week, according to a government report released Thursday.

There were 462,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Oct. 9, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 449,000 the previous week, according to the Labor Department's weekly report.


Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting 450,000 new claims.

The weekly figure has been stuck in a tight range since last November, hovering in the mid- to upper-400,000 range, and even ticking slightly above 500,000 in mid-August.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims -- a number that tries to smooth out week-to-week volatility -- was 459,000. This number is up 2,250 from the previous week.

While not a eye-popping number, Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services, says it is more evidence that the job market remains hobbled.

"Claims are going in the wrong direction again, but it's a one week move after several weeks of improvements," he said. According to Dye, smoother sailing should be ahead as the last of the temporary workers hired by the Census work through the system.

Continuing claims: The government said 4.399 million people continued to file unemployment claims for their second week or more, during the week ended Oct. 2, the most recent data available. That's down 112,000 from an upwardly revised 4.511 million the week before.

Economists were expecting 4.450 million people to file ongoing claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 34,500 to 4.488 million.

Continuing claims reflect people who file each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people who have exhausted their benefits but are still out of a job.

State-by-state: Jobless claims in two states declined by more than 1,000 in the week ended Oct. 2, which is the most recent state data available. Claims in California dropped the most, by 6,131. The state attributed the drop to fewer layoffs in the trade and service industries.

Claims jumped by more than 1,000 in three states. They rose the most in Pennsylvania, by 2,869, due to layoffs in layoffs in the rubber/plastics, food, construction, and service industries