Why Gingrich is surging in Iowa

(Credit: Nati Harnik/AP/dapd)

This post originally appeared on Slate.
DES MOINES--Conservatives prize constancy above all else, but if Republicans are really faced with a choice between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, this will be a nomination defined by reversals. Nominating Gingrich will require conservatives to embrace a sweeping ideological reversal. Nominating Romney will require Republicans to embrace a candidate who is defined by personal reversals.
If Mitt Romney is the nominee, conservatives will have to reverse themselves on the idea of constancy itself. His flips are numerous and on videotape. Gingrich would need persuade two of the most powerful forces in modern Republican politics to reverse themselves. Social conservatives and Tea Party activists would appear to have insurmountable objections to Gingrich. Social conservative leaders have long argued that presidents must have a sterling private history. Gingrich has the most checkered personal past in the Republican field, with two divorces and an admitted adulterous affair. Tea Party activists, meanwhile, largely blame establishment politicians in both parties for government bloat and a system that rewards the well-connected and influential. Gingrich was in Congress for 20 years and afterward joined the non-elected establishment, making millions working for Freddie Mac and other private companies seeking influence and advice in Washington.
Full CBS News coverage: Newt Gingrich
Gingrich appears to be well on his way to winning over social conservatives and Tea Party supporters in Iowa. Gingrich is the front-runner and leads Romney by between 8 and 9 points in the most recent Des Moines Register poll and the NBC/Marist poll.
Social conservatives have played a key role in the state, voting Pat Robertson to second in the 1988 caucuses and giving Mike Huckabee the win in 2008. The polls show evangelical voters backing Gingrich, who regularly and freely admits his past sins. (Thirty-one percent of evangelical voters support him in the Marist poll; Romney, the next closest competitor gets 14 percent.) Mitt Romney was the one who was supposed to be helped by the fact that social conservatives were going to be less focused on family values issues in this election. Right now Gingrich appears to be benefitting.
 http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57337487-503544/why-gingrich-is-surging-in-iowa/